NFL Pointspreads Analysis

Since football is scored in increments of 3, 7, 6, 8 and 2 points - in that order of regularity - certain pointspreads are much more significant than others. For example, a ½-point variance in a bookmaker’s posted pointspread from 3 is much more important than a ½-point variance from a pointspread of five. This is because football games are very likely to end with 3 points as a margin of victory, but not at all likely to end with a margin of victory of 5 points. About 14 percent of all NFL games end with a margin of victory of precisely 3 points, but only about one game in thirty will end with a pointspread of 5 points.

The ten most meaningful pointspreads are 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14, and 17. (Not in that order, however.) Almost two-thirds of all NFL games can be expected to end with one or another of only those ten margins of victory. Consequently, a bookmaker needs a very good reason to move his line either off or onto one of those ten key numbers. When the bookmaker does move his line from or to one of those ten numbers, it's usually because he's having difficulty getting enough action on both sides of the bet.

For you, as a bettor, a line move off one of those numbers can easily present either an opportunity or a trap. An underdog getting 3½ points, for example, is a much better bargain than the same underdog getting only 3 points. That extra ½-point means their opponents must upgrade a field goal to a touchdown in order to cover. And by the same token, an underdog getting only 2½ points is a much higher risk than the same underdog getting 3 points. A ½-point move from a pointspread of 3 can be more important than many much larger moves. An underdog getting 9½ points instead of 7½ points is hardly a better deal at all. Since games rarely end with a margin of victory of exactly 8 or 9 points, there's simply not much difference between getting 9½ points or 7½ points. If an underdog fails to cover 7½ points, they're not likely to cover 9½ points, either. Likewise, a favorite giving away 7½ points is hardly a better bet than the same favorite giving away 9½ points. If a team wins by more than 7½ points, they will almost always win by more than 9½ points.

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The significance of different size pointspreads does not increase on an evenly ascending scale. Imagine a very crazy staircase where some steps are much higher than others, and hardly any two steps are exactly the same size. Our natural instincts tell us to place a bet whenever the pointspread is a certain amount different from our own prediction - but that instinct is misleading because of the unique factors involved. For example, if your final forecast shows a 2½-point favorite should win by 4½ or 5 points, there may be a good argument for going with the bet, even though your prediction is only 2+ points away from the posted line. This is because there is a substantial likelihood that the favorite could win by either 3 or 4 points.

On the other hand, if you show a 7-point favorite should win by 9½ or 10 points, you may be well advised to pass the bet. Even though your prediction is further from this pointspread than in the first example, it's a much riskier proposition. Since games rarely end with 8- or 9-point margins of victory, the favorite would very likely have to beat your own forecast in order to cover the 7-point line.

The implications are obvious: It is important to take the time to shop. Shopping for lines is one of your most important advantages. Veteran professional sports bettor, Lem Banker, is a steadfast believer in making the effort to shop. Banker offers some very good advice: "If you like a favorite that is minus 3½, shop around until you find a minus three... If the price isn't right, pass it up."

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The importance of shopping was burned into my own brain ‘way back in 1983. I had just recorded the lines at Caesars Palace and walked across the street to the Barbary Coast in order to check their lines.

I was interested in the game between the New York Jets and the then-Baltimore Colts - among other games - so the line at Caesars Palace of Jets minus 3½ was still fresh in my mind.

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The Barbary's line on that same game was Jets minus 4, and while I was at the Barbary I overheard a fellow lay $3,300 to win $3,000 on the Jets, giving up the 4 points.

Had the man bothered to walk across the street he would have had to give up only 3½ points.

You guessed it: The Jets won, 10-6. The bettor pushed. His failure to walk across the street cost him $3,000.....And he is still probably blissfully unaware of it.

In Las Vegas, shopping pays off because of competition between sports books. In order to attract customers some sports books offer worthwhile bargains on certain days or during certain hours of the day. One such bargain is to give the customer an extra half-point. If Team A is minus 6, for example, a bettor is allowed to bet on them at minus 5½, or to bet against them at plus 6½. (The too-important 3-point lines are usually excluded from this offer.) Another bargain often available is, instead of having to lay 110, the bettor is required to lay only 108, or even 105. There are also special rates on special bets that can give you an added value, such as 3-bet parlays that win 6½-to-1 rather than 6-to-1, or 2-bet parlays that pay 14-to-5 rather than 13-to-five.

On-line sportbooks can offer better prices than brick-and-mortar sportbooks because of the differences in overhead costs. Competition is heating up on the Internet. On-line sportbooks don't have the expense of lavish floor shows or great restaurants or opulent surroundings; they must come up with other ways to attract business. Cutting prices always works.

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Because certain scores are much more likely to occur than others, your forecasts of scores are extremely important in relation to your predicted pointspreads. If your prediction is for a team to score, say, 26 points, there is virtually no chance of your forecast coming true. Teams just don't score 26 points. If your forecasting method shows a final score of, say, 26-18, the chances of your being exactly right are about the same as Pat Robertson's chances of being elected President. Once again, the reason is the way in which football is scored. In your lifetime, for example, there is not likely to be a pro football game that ends with a score of 26-18.

Whatever your forecast, by whatever system you use, it's helpful if that forecast is adjusted to a score that is likely to really happen. Only 13 different numbers make up more than two-thirds of all final scores in pro football: 7, 10, 13, 14, 16, 17, 20, 21, 23, 24, 27, 28, 31. These 13 numbers, plus the group "41 & more", can be used as the only numbers in your final forecast; - that is, even though your forecast is for a score of, say, 26-18, your prediction is best 'translated' into a score with a reasonable chance of actually occurring. In the case of 26-18, you'd be better off 'translating' such a forecast to approriate numbers that are more apt to occur. (27-17, or 24-17, or 28-20, or perhaps 24-20.) By translating your final forecasts into these key scores, you will automatically be adjusting your predicted margins of victory into realistic pointspreads.

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